Grand National 2016: A duffer's definitive guide to picking a winner

The gee-gees are giddying up for another big one on Saturday when Britain’s biggest horse race gallops back around.

There are as many as 40 nags running and jumping from at Aintree from 5.15pm with names as weird and wonderful as The Romford Pele, Onenightinvienna and The Druids Nephew – so how exactly can the average Joe be expected to choose a good prospect?

Don’t fear, that’s why I’m here.

But what are your credentials, I hear you say. Why should we follow your advice?

Here’s why: in the past half a dozen years, I reckon I’ve placed as many as half a dozen bets on horses. I can’t be sure on the exact number because I’ve often ended up tearing up my slip in exasperation.

One year, I had two horses in the Grand National. Both died.

I once placed a bet on a dead cert in the Melbourne Cup. It was disqualified.

So, if you read carefully my advice and be certain NOT to follow it, you’ll find your odds of making a killing are greatly increased.

BETTING TIP #1

Never trust an ‘expert’

When someone in your office *cough* Andy Parkes *cough* reckons they’ve got a sure fire winner, just smile meekly but DO NOT part with cash.

It’s like copying someone’s homework – how do you know they’ve got it right? A safer bet is to assume they haven’t.

This approach has caught me out more times than I care to remember, maybe I’m too trusting. Don’t make the same mistake.

 I’m still recovering from a great tip in the Gold Cup a couple of years ago. Thanks a bunch, Andy. Which brings us on to...

BETTING TIP #2

Do not bet on Many Clouds.

Last year I told you not to bet on it after it let me down in the Gold Cup. It didn’t win the Gold Cup, it won’t win the Grand National, I told you.

Maybe you thought my prediction was wrong - it wasn’t, the timing was slightly out. By a year.

 Lightning won’t strike twice, my friends. Or three times if you’re Leighton Aspell.

Many Clouds will not win the Grand National (again). Mark my words.

BETTING TIP #3

Name

Let’s face it, there are 40 horses running. You can’t possibly make a good judgement on which is fastest unless you actually know what you’re doing (and remember #1, don’t trust someone who claims they do) so just pick the one with the best name.

At least this way you’ll have some kind of emotional investment in the beast. And probably a chuckle to yourself at the bookies (they won’t be amused any more, they do it every day).

By that virtue plump for Boston Bob, The Romford Pele, Sir Des Champs of the ‘sounds like an 80s hair metal band’ Black Thunder.

BETTING TIP #4

Jersey colour

The advantage here is that you’ll easily be able to see whether your horse is winning rather than rely on remembering roughly what yours looks like and trying to decipher the commentary.

Clearly you can choose a favourite colour but I’m fond of the jazzy jersey of Ballycasey, which is vaguely reminiscent of Mr Blobby.

BETTING TIP #5

Odds

Booooring. You know the drill, pick the horse with the smallest numbers next to its name. Or the next one along if you’re feeling ‘adventurous’.  These change but currently Many Clouds (remember: WILL NOT WIN) is favourite at 8/1 with Silviniaco Conti and The Last Samurai at 10/1.

BETTING TIP #6

The sentimental choice

The sentimental, heart-warming choice is clear: jockey Leighton Aspell retired in 2007 before making a comeback in 2009 and he now looking for a hat-trick of Grand National wins in as many years. And he’s riding last year’s champion Many Clouds.

It would make history in a huge way and deliver a kicking to the bookies, which only adds to the story.

But, like I keep saying, it won’t happen: Many Clouds won’t win.

THE DEFINITIVE MUST-BET:

Oh, go on then, stick a quid on Many Clouds. But don’t say I didn’t warn you.

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