If there was to be a local election tomorrow Paul Burstow would lose his seat, according to a new report.

Research carried out by former deputy chairman of the Conservative Party Lord Ashcroft, looked at the views of 19,000 voters around Great Britain as to how they would vote at the next election in 2015.

The study found the Conservative party would overturn a four per cent deficit from the 2010 to claim the Sutton and Cheam seat which has been held by former care minister Paul Burstow since 1997.

At the last election in 2010, Mr Burstow registered 46 per cent of the vote, compared to 42 per cent for the Conservatives, but the poll demonstrates a potential sea change in Sutton politics.

Paul Scully, the Conservative parliamentary candidate for Sutton and Cheam for 2015, said the race is on.

He said: "There is a lot of work to do, but it is all to play for. For over ten years Paul Burstow has been Westminster's man in Sutton, he has been a mouthpiece for parliament. I want to be Sutton's man in Westminster, and show the people of Sutton I will be their voice."

Paul Burstow said: "If we listened to every mid-term poll I'd have lost my seat long ago.

"Instead, I have worked hard for the people of Sutton, Cheam and Worcester Park and have never taken their votes for granted."